India, US and a serious diplomatic miscalculation
(Courtesy of Ceylon Today)
When a number of political parties and civil society movements with different ideologies, joined forces to defeat President Mahinda Rajapaksa at the 8 January 2015 election, it was a clear sign that some invisible forces were at work putting together a coalition of very unlikely partners.
The group included, capitalist UNP, socialist JVP, nationalist Hela Urumaya, separatist TNA, and also a group of defectors from the Rajapaksa Government. Several other smaller parties with diverse political ideologies also joined the band wagon. Right from the outset, it was clear that Maithripala Sirisena’s sudden emergence, as the ‘common opposition candidate’ was the result of carefully orchestrated behind-the-scene activity. The enormous amount of funds that were available to support the election campaign of the common opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena, was just the tip of the iceberg.
When the presidential election was over, both USA and India were quick to claim credit for a regime change in Sri Lanka. Several high officials representing the western countries, particularly USA, openly started making references about their role in ‘the regime change’. Though India was not that direct, there were indications that the Indian Government was also delighted to see the back of Mahinda Rajapaksa. Indian newspapers such as The Hindu, published several articles highlighting the role played by India in the ‘regime change’ operation in Sri Lanka. Some Indian high officials commented after the election that Former President Mahinda Rajapaksha had underestimated the influence of India in regional politics. “Bhutan’s Prime Minister tried to play India against China and he lost. Nepal’s Maoists tried the same and they got thrown out. Neighbouring countries should know where their interests and kinship lie. Mahinda Rajapaksa couldn’t alienate us in the region and hope to survive”, read a much quoted soundbite from Mohan Guruswamy of the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Alternatives.
Even before the end of the war foreign forces were engaged with various political groups in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan intelligence forces had identified several NGOs engaged in promoting anti-government activities. Funding was available in abundance for these anti-government movements. The financial power demonstrated by the opposition camp during the election was a clear indication that they had external support. It is commonly believed that large amounts of money changed hands in attracting various political personalities and groups to support the common opposition candidate.
On 20 November 2014, one day after ex-President Mahinda Rajapaksa announced the date of the election, Maithripala Sirisena, a powerful minister and also the general secretary of SLFP, quit the government and declared that he would be standing for election backed by the opposition made up of the United National Party and several other parties. It couldn’t have been a sudden decision but only the final execution of a well-laid plan.
The Obama administration was deeply hostile to President Mahinda Rajapaksa during the last few years of his tenure due to the close ties the Sri Lankan Government maintained with China. The growing Chinese presence in Sri Lanka, particularly the Chinese involvement in the Sri Lankan ports, was making USA concerned.
The USA has been putting pressure on Rajapaksa to break ties with China for quite some time. Having initially backed the war efforts, Washington had exploited the alleged war crimes issue to try and force President Rajapaksa to distance his Government from China. Finally Washington flagged its impatience by pushing a resolution through the UN Human Rights Council, calling for an international inquiry into human rights abuses in Sri Lanka.
Washington’s interest in Sri Lanka has nothing to do with fostering democracy anywhere else in the world. Rather, the USA wants to ensure its dominance throughout the globe, particularly in Asia over China. Sri Lanka, which is strategically located across Indian Ocean sea-lanes, is a critical element of the Pentagon’s security plans against China. Even with the new Trump administration there may not be major changes in this policy.
India and Sri Lanka being close neighbours share a long history of hot and cold relationships. India always prefers to play the role of big brother to Sri Lanka. The relationship between the two countries was cordial as long as Sri Lanka consulted and sought blessings of India over major strategic decisions. More often than not, the Sri Lankan Governments were tolerant towards Indian influence over local affairs. One of the main reasons why successive Sri Lankan Governments couldn’t end the 30 year long conflict in the North was mainly due to this Indian influence.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa also made every effort to maintain a close relationship with India. India was well briefed during the final phase of the Eelam war. Accordingly, there were no surprises as far as India was concerned, when Sri Lankan forces successfully ended the war in May 2009.
However, it was after ending the war, during the second term of Mahinda Rajapaksa that the relationship between the two administrations started getting sour. The primary reason for this was the close relationship that Rajapaksa government had started cultivating with China.
Before the presidential election there were some indications of the involvement of the Indian intelligence services in the local politics. For example there was a Reuters report that a senior official of the Indian Embassy was recalled by India on the insistence of the Sri Lankan Government. According to this report, the officer concerned was in fact a senior official of RAW and the reason for the protest by the Sri Lankan Government was his direct involvement with the opposition political parties during the build up to the presidential election.
India however, rejected any suggestion that it meddled in the Sri Lankan election. An External Affairs Ministry spokesman insisted that the diplomat who was mentioned in the Reuters report was recalled as part of a “normal transfer” after a three-year tour of duty in Colombo. However, according to the Reuters sources, the officer was involved in “facilitating meetings to encourage several lawmakers, among them Maithripala Sirisena, to defect from Rajapaksa’s party.”
It is widely believed that the arrival of the Chinese naval submarine ‘Great Wall 329’ at the Colombo Port on two occasions influenced the active involvement of India, supporting the opposition candidate in the presidential election. According to Reuters, India was ‘stunned’ when Chinese submarines docked twice in Colombo in September 2014. An Indian security official told the news agency, “The turning point in the relationship was the submarines, as there was a real danger”. Alarm bells would also have rung in Washington. As part of its ‘pivot to Asia’ to secure its hegemony in Asia, the US has been preparing war plans against China, premised on American naval supremacy in the Indian Ocean that would enable the US to cut off Chinese imports of energy and raw materials from Africa and the Middle East.
When the first Chinese submarine came to Colombo, India complained to the Defence Secretary of Sri Lanka, that the presence of Chinese submarines was a threat to India’s security. It was probably when the second Chinese submarine docked in Colombo Port that India lost cool. When India contacted President Mahinda Rajapaksa he was firm that Sri Lanka is a sovereign country and doesn’t need anybody’s permission to run its affairs.
New Delhi would have played a significant role in lining up political support for Sirisena via the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the main party of the Tamil ruling elite in Sri Lanka. For weeks, the TNA held off making any announcement about the presidential election. But after a trip to New Delhi by TNA leader R. Sampanthan, the party openly backed Sirisena, helping to swing Tamil votes in the North and East for the opposition candidate. This explain why Tamils voted in such large numbers for Maithripala Sirisena, despite his role as acting Defence Minister in the final two weeks of the war in 2009.
It is ironic however, that all the efforts of India and USA have gone to waste, with the desperately cash strapped Sri Lankan Government bent on short-term economic survival deciding to lease the strategic Hambantota Port to a Chinese firm for 99 years. On 20 July 2017, the very day the Indo Lanka Accord was signed in 1987 between Rajiv Gandhi and JR Jayewardene, the Hambantota agreement was signed between the Ports Authority of Sri Lanka and the China Merchant Company Ltd of China.
Despite all the rhetoric, the Ports Authority with only 15% and 42% shares respectively in the two newly formed Hambantota International Port Group (Pvt ) Ltd and Hambantota International Port Services (Pvt) Ltd will become a minority shareholder with no control over Chinese interests. China has now got control of probably the most strategic port in its proposed string of pearls.
The national security advisors of India who advised the new BJP Government against Mahinda Rajapaksa seem to have done a serious miscalculation. If not for India’s eagerness in helping the removal of a strong leader in Sri Lanka, China would have never got a permanent foothold in Hambantota like this. The only comfort they must be having now is the fact that both India and USA are on the same boat.
By Dr. Nalaka Godahewa
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